Disney’s Joint Sports Streaming Venture Being Examined by Antitrust Regulators

 by Ray Keating

News/Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

February 16, 2024

 

“Big is necessarily bad” has been the mantra among antitrust regulators in Washington, D.C., for two consecutive presidential administrations now. And there has been plenty of anti-big business rhetoric flying from Congress as well.

That’s why when Disney-ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery and Fox announced a joint sports streaming venture, DisneyBizJournal noted, “But one has to wonder if this type of joint venture will attract attention from Washington’s antitrust activist regulators.”

 

As noted in the press release from Disney, “The platform would aggregate content to offer fans an extensive, dynamic lineup of sports content, aiming to provide a new and differentiated experience to serve sports fans, particularly those outside of the traditional pay TV bundle. By subscribing to this focused, all-in-one premier sports service, fans would have access to the linear sports networks including ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, SECN, ACCN, ESPNEWS, ABC, FOX, FS1, FS2, BTN, TNT, TBS, truTV, as well as ESPN+.”

 

Well, guess what? Antitrust regulators are looking at this proposed joint venture.  

 

Reuters reported, “The U.S. Department of Justice aims to scrutinize a sports streaming platform planned by Walt Disney, Fox, and Warner Bros Discovery, over concerns it could harm consumers, sports leagues and rivals, Bloomberg Law reported on Thursday.”

 

As is almost always the case, it’s not consumers who are raising issues with government regulators, but instead, it’s about competitors in the marketplace who don’t like the proposed deal. It was noted by Reuters: “Fubo, a sports-focused streaming service, called for scrutiny of the new joint venture shortly after it was announced. In a Feb. 7 statement, Fubo said the media partners command ‘significant market share,’ reportedly controlling 60% to 85% of all sports content.” 

 

Hmmm, that’s a pretty wide margin, and it’s not clear how Fubo came to those percentages. Plus, antitrust is supposed to be about monopolies. A monopoly means one supplier, no close substitutes for the product, and high barriers to entry. That definition doesn’t fit this situation. But, again, D.C. regulators have adopted very expansive, activist views to the point that their actions aren’t really guided by a monopoly, or the threat of one; but instead, they’re guided by “bigness.”

 

Indeed, antitrust is supposed to be about protecting consumers. But consumers will decide if they like this joint venture or not. Indeed, that’s how markets work.

 

Nonetheless, regulators often have a different take, and we’ll see how this proposed joint sports streaming venture goes with the government.

 

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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, the Alliance of Saint Michael novels, and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Support the Daily Dose of Disney with Ray Keating Podcast at https://www.buzzsprout.com/1724143. Subscribe at the $8 or $10 level, and get The Disney Planner: The TO DO List Solution by Ray Keating. Remain a supporter and you'll get a FREE BOOK by Ray Keating every six months going forward. Thanks!

 

The Disney Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more.

 

Consider other books by Ray Keating, including…

 

• The Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. There are 18 books in the series now.

 

• Pre-order The Weekly Economist III: Another 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed books here and Kindle editions here.

 

• Order The Weekly Economist II: 52 More Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed books here.  And Kindle and paperback editions here.

 

• The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks at RayKeatingOnline.com or paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.

 

• Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel is at Amazon. 

 

• The Lutheran Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement, inspiration and consolation from the Christian faith.

 

• Signed editions of Ray’s books are at www.raykeatingbooksandmore.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Lots of Disney News Heading Into the Earnings Calls

 by Ray Keating

News/Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

February 6, 2024

 

Heading into the company’s February 7 earnings call, there’s plenty of news swirling around the Walt Disney Company.

 

First, another big-time activist investor group – Blackwells Capital – is tossing board nominees into the ring for the April 3 shareholder meeting. Blackwells wants to expand the number of board seats, and is talking about the possibility of breaking up Disney into three public companies, according to Reuters. Does anyone else detect an early-1980s vibe here, given Disney’s recent terrible stock performance?

 

This, of course, in addition to Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management effort to replace Disney board members.

Second, news broke on February 6 that ESPN, Fox and Warner Brothers are going to team up to establish a mega-sports streaming service. Each company would own a one-third share of the joint venture. According to the press release from Disney, “The platform would aggregate content to offer fans an extensive, dynamic lineup of sports content, aiming to provide a new and differentiated experience to serve sports fans, particularly those outside of the traditional pay TV bundle. By subscribing to this focused, all-in-one premier sports service, fans would have access to the linear sports networks including ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, SECN, ACCN, ESPNEWS, ABC, FOX, FS1, FS2, BTN, TNT, TBS, truTV, as well as ESPN+.”

 

Disney CEO Bob Iger said, “The launch of this new streaming sports service is a significant moment for Disney and ESPN, a major win for sports fans, and an important step forward for the media business. This means the full suite of ESPN channels will be available to consumers alongside the sports programming of other industry leaders as part of a differentiated sports-centric service.”

 

Pricing and other details will be forthcoming. 

 

But one has to wonder if this type of joint venture will attract attention from Washington’s antitrust activist regulators.

 

Third, Gina Carano is back. But not in The Mandalorian. She’s in the courtroom, and Elon Musk is at her side. Carano is suing Disney for her firing from the streaming show, and Musk’s company X is funding the lawsuit, according to CNBC. As reported by CNBC: “The suit, which alleges wrongful discharge and sex discrimination, seeks Carano’s reinstatement in ‘The Mandalorian,’ and monetary damages for the loss of her past pay and her future employment as a result of her termination. Carano was booted from the series after she shared a post on Instagram and TikTok that implied conservatives in the U.S. were being treated like Jewish people in Nazi Germany.”

 

Finally, Disney has brought in a big thinker to help people with their board votes – Professor Ludwig Von Drake. The Hollywood Reporter noted: “The media and entertainment giant released an animated video Monday urging shareholders to vote, but only for the company’s preferred board members. The Austrian duck, who is uncle to Donald and an expert on many subjects in the Disney universe, guides the shareholders through the voting process that kicks off ahead of the April 3 shareholder meeting.”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, the Alliance of Saint Michael novels, and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Support the Daily Dose of Disney with Ray Keating Podcast at https://www.buzzsprout.com/1724143. Subscribe at the $8 or $10 level, and get The Disney Planner: The TO DO List Solution by Ray Keating. Remain a supporter and you'll get a FREE BOOK by Ray Keating every six months going forward. Thanks!

 

The Disney Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more.

 

Consider other books by Ray Keating, including…

 

• The Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. There are 18 books in the series now.

 

• Pre-order The Weekly Economist III: Another 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed books here and Kindle editions here.

 

• Order The Weekly Economist II: 52 More Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed books here.  And Kindle and paperback editions here.

 

• The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks at RayKeatingOnline.com or paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.

 

• Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel is at Amazon. 

 

• The Lutheran Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement, inspiration and consolation from the Christian faith.

 

• Signed editions of Ray’s books are at www.raykeatingbooksandmore.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Most Powerful Scene in “Miracle on 34th Street”

 by Chris Lucas

Guest Column

DisneyBizJournal.com

December 23, 2023

 

The Oscar winning 1947 FOX movie “Miracle on 34th Street” is on TV quite often this season. It is also available for streaming on Disney Plus.

 

It’s a classic and heartwarming movie on its own, but one scene, in particular, stands out for me and is often overlooked.

The brief “Dutch Girl meets Santa at MACY’S” scene is very moving, but even more of a tear jerker when viewed in context.

 

The five-year brutal Nazi occupation of the Netherlands, which ended just two years before this scene is set, left thousands of children - especially Jewish ones - without parents, many sent to camps never to return while their children were hidden for safety with kindhearted and courageous friends and relatives. 

 

After the war, multitudes of Americans came forward to adopt these Dutch war orphans, who had witnessed horrors that no child ever should, as well as thousands of other refugees and immigrants from all over Europe and Asia. 

 

What this shy little girl says to Santa in Dutch when he asks her what she wants more than anything else for Christmas is, roughly translated:

 

“I don’t want anything from you Santa Claus, I only want to be able to stay here safe with this nice American family who adopted me from the orphanage.” 

 

Then, she looks over at her adoptive mother with wide eyes and gives her a beaming smile.

 

Tears. Every. Single. Time.

 

The magic of Santa. 

 

The power of love. 

 

All in one scene. 

 

__________

 

Chris Lucas is the author of Top Disney: 100 Top Ten Lists of the Best of Disney, from the Man to the Mouse and Beyond.

What’s Going on at Disney? Rice Fired and Walden Promoted

 by Ray Keating

News/Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

June 10, 2022

 

Shake-ups happen in business all of the time. Sometimes they make sense, and others amount to head-scratchers. On occasion, the real reasons don’t get revealed for a bit of time. It’s unclear which will be the case with Disney CEO Bob Chapek’s firing of Peter Rice as the head of the company’s television content.

 

The move was referred to as “shocking” and “head-spinning” by Variety, for example. News reports were filled with statements of outrage for those who support Rice and/or dislike Chapek.  And as is clear from widespread reports, the firing came out of nowhere for Rice, and it could not be tied to his performance, as his division was performing well.

In a company announcement, it was noted that Dana Walden would be Rice’s replacement as chairman of Disney General Entertainment Content. As a result, she “will have oversight of ABC Entertainment, ABC News, Disney Branded Television, Disney Television Studios, Freeform, FX, Hulu Originals, National Geographic Content, and Onyx Collective. Walden previously served as Chairman, Entertainment, Walt Disney Television and succeeds Peter Rice, who is leaving the Company.”

 

Rice and Walden came to Disney via the Fox acquisition, with Walden reporting to Rice.

 

So, what’s the deal with the Rice firing? Speculation swirls, with additional, resulting controversy coming Chapek’s way. The Hollywood Reporter relayed the following: “Industry insiders believe Rice was perceived as angling to replace the embattled Chapek… It is notable that the board issued a statement in support of Chapek, who has only a few months left on his contract. The move comes as a shocker considering Chapek re-upped Rice to a new long-term deal last summer.”

 

Along those lines, The New York Times pointed out, “Mr. Rice, who has also overseen ABC News, most recently renewed his contract at Disney in August. It ran until the end of 2024. Disney will pay him out, the people said… In April, Mr. Chapek fired the company’s most senior communications and government relations executive; the executive, Geoff Morrell, had joined Disney in January under a multiyear contract. Disney also paid him out.” 

 

Is this a strange trend developing, or just coincidence?

 

Meanwhile, CNBC reported: “While generally well liked personally, Rice has irritated some co-workers at Disney for monopolizing information rather than sharing it with co-workers — a style that may have worked at Fox but was ill-fitting at Disney, according to a person familiar with the matter.”

 

Finally, as for Walden, DisneyBizJournal highlighted in a piece titled “Disney on How NOT To Do Diversity” a rather bizarre comment she made in early 2021:

 

The statement kind of hits like a cold bucket of water over the head: “I will tell you for the first time we received some incredibly well-written scripts that did not satisfy our standards in terms of inclusion, and we passed on them.”

 

As noted by the Hollywood Reporter, Walt Disney Television chairman of entertainment Dana Walden made this declaration recently during a panel discussion. And it’s the direct result of a set of inclusion standards – i.e., actual percentage breakdowns of “groups” populating on-screen presentation, creative teams and behind the scenes – set up in the fall 2020 by ABC/Disney…

 

Diversity as an objective for a business is not new and can be beneficial, such as by bringing various viewpoints and perspectives to decision-making. When done thoughtfully and constructively, it can send positive messages beyond the firm as well. 

 

At its best, corporate efforts to improve diversity and inclusion mean opening more doors, and expanding the number of chairs at the table. The point is that business is not a zero-sum game. The right decisions mean growth and expanding opportunities, hopefully, for all.

 

But that is not the message behind Walden’s comment. That drips of zero-sum, us-vs.-them thinking, with diversity and inclusion efforts resulting in the exclusion of certain people. How tragically ironic…

 

With assorted controversies cropping up seemingly on a regular basis, it’s understandable that observers might wonder what’s going on at the House of Mouse these days. Questions are further fueled by the fact that Chapek’s contract expires at the end of February. Just as the Disney board issued a statement of support regarding Chapek’s decision regarding Rice and Walden, the ultimate support would come with an announced contract extension for the company’s CEO.

 

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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Two great ways to order Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel, which is Ray’s sixteenth work of fiction, and the first in the Alliance of Saint Michael series. Signed paperbacks here and the Kindle edition here. 

 

Two great ways to order Ray Keating’s new nonfiction book – The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks here, and paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions here.  

 

Get all of Ray Keating Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries in paperback and for the Kindle at Amazon.com and signed books at www.RayKeatingOnline.com. 

 

Get more out of the rest of 2022 with The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution! It combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more. Also, “The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution” comes with a handy spiral binding for easy use. It’s on sale and shipping is always free!

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Disney Expands Its Relationship with the NFL

by Ray Keating

News

DisneyBizJournal.com

March 18, 2021 (Updated at 5:58 PM ET)

 

In a new deal, Disney has expanded its relationship with the NFL.

 

The NFL, as announced on March 18, has signed agreements with Disney (including ESPN, ABC and ESPN+), Fox, CBS, NBC, Amazon and NFL Network that cover national television coverage through the 2033 season. According to The New York Times, the complete package is worth about $110 billion.

 

ABC will pick up two Super Bowls. The NFL reported the Super Bowl breakdowns as follows: “From 2023 through 2033, three Super Bowls each will be hosted by CBS (2023, 2027, 2031), FOX (2024, 2028, 2032) and NBC (2025, 2029, 2033), while ABC (2026, 2030) will carry two.”

 

According to an ESPN report, ESPN keeps Monday Night Football, while adding six games each season, featuring three Monday night doubleheaders (with a game on ESPN followed by a game on ABC), a late-season Saturday doubleheader, and a Sunday morning game on ESPN+. Also, Monday Night Football will gain a “flex” option starting in week 12 of the season to ensure better games. And ESPN will continue to air the NFL draft.

 

Amazon pulled off a major gain by getting exclusive coverage of Thursday Night Football (with local broadcast coverage of teams playing) on Amazon Prime Video.

 

The NFL noted that the deals allow for the league to add a 17th game to its season, and a decision on that will be likely be made at the NFL owners’ meeting on March 30-31.

 

CBS and FOX keep Sunday afternoon coverage, and NBC Sunday Night Football.

 

Each network is able to simulcast games on their respective streaming services.

 

Disney CEO Bob Chapek was quoted: “This landmark agreement guarantees that ESPN's passionate fan base will continue to have access to the best the NFL has to offer. Bringing all the considerable and unique capabilities of The Walt Disney Company and ESPN to the table opens up so many opportunities across our industry-leading direct-to-consumer, broadcast, cable, linear, social and digital outlets. Special thanks to Roger Goodell and the NFL owners for continuing to embrace new ways to appeal to their fans, especially through increasingly important platforms like ESPN+.”

 

The current NFL television deals expire after the 2021 season for ESPN, and after the 2022 season for CBS, NBC and FOX. 

 

The NFL’s deal with DirecTV for the Sunday Ticket package also ends after 2022, but nothing new has been announced on that front. On the heels of today’s announcement, there are conflicting reports or rumors flying about Sunday Ticket, with some saying it will stay at DirecTV and others pointing to it going to ESPN+. Again, nothing has been announced on that as yet.

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the  Pastor Stephen Grant novels and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating has two new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. 

 

Please support the efforts of DisneyBizJournal.com to bring news, analysis and commentary on Disney to readers such as yourself. Make a contribution right here via PayPal. Thanks!

  

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #5: Interview with Thom Brennaman – TV Play-by-Play for the Cincinnati Reds & FOX NFL

Ray Keating once again upgrades the podcast with a great guest. Thom Brennaman, Cincinnati Reds play-by-play TV announcer and play-by-play announcer for the NFL on FOX, is that special guest. 

Thom and Ray talk about Brennaman’s broadcast experience and some of his fellow Reds announcers; the NFL’s noteworthy accomplishments with this year’s draft; NASCAR getting out front on re-opening among major sports; what lies ahead for baseball; and what the Reds were up to in the offseason and what the team promises to look like whenever the first pitch is tossed out for MLB season. Thom also plays “Tell Me Your Favorites” and talks about some matters beyond sports. Despite being a ridiculous Reds fan, Ray manages to act professionally. Enjoy the conversation!

Click here or on the graphic above.

Will Fox Finally Bring Disney a Best Picture Oscar?

by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

February 8, 2020

It’s kind of surprising given its many successes over ninety-plus years, but Disney has never won an Academy Award for Best Picture.

In fact, it’s even more striking to note that coming into the 2020 Academy Awards ceremony tomorrow (February 9) night, Disney previously had only five films nominated for Best Picture. 

The last one was Black Panther released in 2018, and before that was Toy Story 3 (Disney/Pixar) released in 2010, Up (Disney/Pixar) in 2009, and Beauty and the Beast from 1991. Both Up and Toy Story 3, though, did win Best Animated Feature awards. 

Prior to these, one has to go back to Mary Poppins (1964) for a Disney Best Picture nomination.

But that’s it. This year, though, courtesy of the Fox acquisition, Disney has two Best Picture nominations – Ford v Ferrari and JoJo Rabbit. So, buying Fox already has increased Disney’s Best Picture nominations from five to seven – a 40 percent increase - and opened the possibility for the Oscar.

Indeed, could Disney finally get a Best Picture Oscar on Sunday night, and if so, given that each of these movies were Fox productions, would a win be considered a true “Disney” win?

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of The Disney Planner 2020: The TO DO List Solution and the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

Ad Astra: Solid Movie, Poor Box Office

by Ray Keating

Review

DisneyBizJournal.com

September 28, 2019

DisneyBizJournal.com Movie Rating: 4 stars out of 5

DisneyBizJournal.com Box Office Rating:  $ out of $$$$

Ad Astra, one of the films passed to Disney via the Fox acquisition, is the space sci-fi version of Field of Dreams.What do I mean? 

Well, on the surface level, one would say that Field of Dreams is a baseball movie. But in reality, baseball is used to tell a father-son story.

Likewise, on the surface, Ad Astra is a space movie. And on that level, it’s well done. No, it definitely isn’t anything like Star Wars or that type of pacing, but instead it has much in common with The Martian and, even more so, the space biopic First Man. 

Brad Pitt brings a reflective gravitas and depth to the role of astronaut Roy McBride. It’s arguably one of Pitt’s best performances in a career that continues to grow in stature, including his Cliff Booth in Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood this year as well.

In the end, though, Ad Astra turns out to be a father-son story, and one that’s very different from the aforementioned Field of Dreams. This develops into a story of a son trying not to be like his father, and a man wrestling with what’s truly important – that is, what ultimately matters – in life and what doesn’t. It’s about deciding to share one’s life with loved ones or not.

The Box Office

Unfortunately, Ad Astra seems to falling into the classification of a well-done film that struggles at the box office.

It’s been reported that the production budget for Ad Astra was $80 million, with some saying it was pushed up to $100 million with reshoots. Meanwhile, BoxOfficeMojo.com reports that Ad Astra, from its opening on September 20 through September 27, earned $55 million globally. While it still has not opened everywhere internationally as yet, such as China still to come, it’s hard to see this film registering a profit.

Ad Astra and Brad Pitt deserve better than what this movie apparently will achieve at the box office.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

If you enjoyed this article, and since I am the author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories, and other books, can I ask you to take at least one (preferably more) of the following steps?

1) The new Pastor Stephen Grant novel – DEEP ROUGH – has arrived! You can order the Kindle edition, the paperback, or the signed book.

2) Please join the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories email list, and get the upcoming short story, THE TRAITOR, for free! Sign up here.

3) Buy one of the other Pastor Stephen Grant novels or short stories at Amazon.comor signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

4) Become a member of the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship, and get all kinds of FREE stuff, including each new book in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Check out the levels and benefits here.

5) Order my newest book – FREE TRADE ROCKS! 10 POINTS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE EVERYONE SHOULD KNOW – at Amazon.com for the Kindle or in paperback, or signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/freetrade.

Disney’s Purchase of Fox a Decision for the Long Run, Not a Short-Term Hit

by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

June 10, 2019

Accusations of businesses looking only at the short run usually are hurled by politicians, who, of course, specialize in short-run decisions. In reality, business owners and CEOs make decisions for a wide variety of reasons, and few, if any, are about trying to get a short-term kick at the expense of long-run well-being. 

The latest example is the purchase of Fox by Disney. We’re seeing via the box office that this acquisition wasn’t about boosting Disney’s bottom line in the short term.

When talking about 2019 Disney movies that were in the Disney column prior to the Fox merger, the House of Mouse is looking good in the short run, and for further building its brand and bottom line over the long haul. Disney is three for four so far, with the box office hits being Captain Marvel  (global gross of $1.13 billion), Avengers: Endgame ($2.73 billion, so far) and Aladdin ($607.6 million, so far), with Dumbo ($350.6 million) being the miss.

And it’s hard to see a miss coming among the pre-Fox-merger Disney line-up, with Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Frozen II and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker on the way through the end of the year.

However, the 20^th Century Fox movies being released post-merger with Disney is a different story. Breakthrough offered a nice return with a box office take at $50.2 million on only a $14 million production budget. But it got ugly with the next two films. 

The botched Tolkien movie didn’t appeal to Tolkien fans, and hence it made a measly $7.7 million. 

And then there’s Dark Phoenix, the X-Men movie that just opened on June 7. It took in only $32.8 million domestically in its opening weekend, and a total global take of $136.6 million. Oh yes, and critics hate it, and audiences are less than pleased. With an enormous budget – widely reported at $200 million – Dark Phoenix is on its way to being a big box office bomb.

And the remaining Fox releases for 2019 look like a mixed bag. And while no one knows in the movie business what will hit and what will miss until the lights go down for audiences, the keys appear to be Ad Astra, Terminator: Dark Fate, Ford v. Ferrari and Spies in Disguise.

Ad Astra and Ford v. Ferrari particularly look intriguing. But we’ll have to see.

The sure bet, if you will, for Disney with the Fox deal was the acquisition of a wide assortment of IP that Disney will use, such as for its streaming service Disney+, and build on as well. For example, with Fox never having done anything well with the Fantastic Four and ending its X-Men run with two busts (Dark Phoenix and X-Men: Apocalypse) – while Logan was quite good, I’m not sure what to do with Deadpool, and who knows what will happen with The New Mutants – it will be Disney’s turn with these and a wide assortment of other properties to reboot and re-energize. 

That’s a long-run thing.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

If you enjoyed this article, and since I am the author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories, can I ask you to take at least one (preferably more) of the following steps?

1) Please join the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories email list, and get the upcoming short story, THE TRAITOR, for free! Sign up here.

2) Buy one of my Pastor Stephen Grant novels or short stories at Amazon.comor signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

3) Become a member of the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship, and get all kinds of FREE stuff, including each new book in the Pastor Stephen grant series. Check out the levels and benefits here.