Disney’s Marvel Still Fixing Rather Than Building

 by Ray Keating

Analysis/Commentary

DisneyBizJournal.com

November 13, 2023

 

The news for Disney regarding the opening weekend of The Marvels wasn’t good, but then again, it’s hard to say that it was unexpected. This is the most recent signal that Disney CEO Bob Iger might have been a bit premature in declaring that the company was shifting from a “fixing” stage to a “building” stage during the company’s earnings call last week.

The Marvels had the worst opening weekend of any MCU movie. According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, the domestic take was $47 million and the international box office was $41.5 million. Reviews are generally poor. And reports put the production budget alone at approximately $274 million. Marketing/post-production costs are going to run anywhere from 50 percent to 100 percent of the production costs. 

 

And keep in mind that Disney doesn’t take all of those box office revenue dollars, with a major chunk going to movie theaters. As DisneyBizJournal.com has previously noted, “It needs to be pointed out that all of the box office gross doesn’t go to Disney. Various industry reports note that studios take in about 55 percent of the domestic box office, and anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent of foreign ticket sales.” It also should be noted that the studio take domestically is a bit higher with the earliest box office numbers. 

 

Even if we use a very generous breakdown for Disney, The Marvels would have to take in more than $950 million to start making a box-office profit.

 

So, you’re looking at another case where Disney’s inability to control costs, combined with another Marvel under-performer in terms of quality, means a box-office bomb.

 

And consider the news that Captain America 4 – Captain America: Brave New World – has not just been pushed from July 2024 to February 2025 due to the writers’ strike, but also, reportedly, for major reshoots due to poor test scores. And those reshoots appear to be major, and lasting a few months. 

 

And then there are the major changes being undertaken for the return of Daredevil to Disney+. 

 

On Disney’s recent earnings call, Iger stated his belief that quantity can undermine quality, and admitted, “We lost some focus.” That might be an understatement in terms of both quality of storytelling and acting responsibly in terms of costs. And “fixing” Cap 4 and Daredevil will only drive costs higher.

 

And now, the only MCU film scheduled for 2024 is Deadpool 3. 

 

Are there bright spots? Disney+’s Loki has fully dropped season 2, and both seasons were excellent. And the trailer for Echo looked surprisingly interesting. But what else is there?

Disney captured lightning in a bottle with its run of MCU films through Avengers: Endgame. And there was plenty of quantity over that stretch, and but for a few misses, quality largely reigned. But since then, quality has been the exception. 

 

In terms of the MCU, Disney still has plenty of fixing to do, and perhaps the best term looking ahead is “rebuilding.”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, the Alliance of Saint Michael novels, and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Support the Daily Dose of Disney with Ray Keating Podcast at https://www.buzzsprout.com/1724143. Subscribe at the $8 or $10 level, and get The Disney Planner: The TO DO List Solution by Ray Keating. Remain a supporter and you'll get a FREE BOOK by Ray Keating every six months going forward. Thanks!

 

Consider books by Ray Keating, including…

 

• The Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. There are 18 books in the series now.

 

• Order The Weekly Economist II: 52 More Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Kindle editions and paperbacks via Amazon here and signed books here. And don’t forget the first book in this growing series, i.e., The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist at Amazon.com.

 

• Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel is at Amazon. 

 

• The Lutheran Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement, inspiration and consolation from the Christian faith.

 

• Signed editions of Ray’s books are at www.RayKeatingOnline.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #53: Disney+ Needs Loki to Excel

After “WandaVision” and “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” fell short, Ray argues that Disney really needs “Loki” to excel. Tune in now!

Disney Investor Day Update 4: Marvel on Disney+ and in Theaters

 by Ray Keating

News

DisneyBizJournal.com

December 10, 2020

 

During the December 10 Walt Disney Company’s Investor Day 2020 online event, the Marvel slate for Disney+ and movies was updated.

 

We already knew that WandaVision will debut on Disney+ on January 15. But we also got dates (well, months) for when some other already-announced series would premiere. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier – described by Kevin Feige as a movie played out over six episodes – will arrive in March 2021. Loki, being classified as a crime thriller, comes in May 2021. The animated What If…? series arrives in the summer of 2021.

Late in 2021, both Ms. Marvel and Hawkeye will land on Disney+.

 

After noting that She Hulk and Moon Knight are still happening, Feige announced other series – Secret Invasion starring Sam Jackson as Nick Fury; Ironheart; Armor Wars with Don Cheadle; and coming in late 2023, The Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special.

 

In terms of new information on the MCU movies front, Feige noted that the role of Black Panther will not be recast, and work on Marvel’s first family, the Fantastic Four, has begun, and it will be directed by Jon Watts.

 

Also, Peyton Reed will direct the third Ant-Man film, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and it will include Jonathan Majors as Kang the Conqueror.

 

Finally, it was interesting to hear Bob Iger declare that Disney+ will be producing 100+ new titles each year.

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. Pre-order the latest thriller/mystery in the series – Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel – for the Kindle or signed books. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

Pre-order The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution today!

 

Please support the efforts of DisneyBizJournal.com to bring news, analysis and commentary on Disney to readers such as yourself. Make a contribution right here via PayPal. Thanks!

 

Also, get the paperback or Kindle edition of Ray Keating’s new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York.

Disneynomics: Disney’s Near-Infinite Opportunities with Marvel

 by Ray Keating

Disneynomics Column

DisneyBizJournal.com

September 27, 2020

 

When The Walt Disney Company purchased Marvel for $4 billion in 2009, then-Disney CEO Bob Iger said, “This is perfect from a strategic perspective. This treasure trove of over 5,000 characters offers Disney the ability to do what we do best.” But I doubt that Iger at the time fully grasped the vast opportunities that would open up.

Looking at what’s happened at the box office for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with 23 movies raking in almost $23 billion, the success of this deal should be obvious to all. Toss in all of the related revenues, and simply based on the movies so far, Disney’s purchase of Marvel turns out to be one of the greatest deals in Hollywood history. Ah, but there is and will be so much more.

 

Indeed, as time passes, the Disney-Marvel deal should prove to be far more lucrative and impressive, as long as storytellers continue telling quality stories, of course. The gains promise not only to come via movie theaters (post-COVID-19), but thanks to the Disney+ streaming service.

 

Consider a couple of recent news items regarding Marvel and Disney+. 

 

Variety reported that, according to sources, Samuel L. Jackson will be back as Nick Fury in a Disney+ series. It was noted, “The exact plot details of the show are being kept under wraps, but multiple sources say Jackson is attached to star with Kyle Bradstreet attached to write and executive produce.” Jackson’s Fury has played a key role in the MCU on the big screen.

And then there’s the release of an extensive trailer for the forthcoming Disney+ series WandaVision, starring Elizabeth Olsen as Wanda Maximoff, a.k.a. the Scarlett Witch, and Paul Bettany as Vision. WandaVision looks fascinating and reportedly will arrive on Disney+ in December.

 

Also coming to Disney+ is The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Loki – some time in 2021. What If…? will be an animated series also coming in 2021. What else? Reports point to Disney+ Marvel shows titled Hawkeye, Ms. Marvel, Moon Knight, and She-Hulk. 

 

What makes the Disney-Marvel deal increasingly fascinating, even though it was signed and sealed eleven years ago, is that with 5,000+ characters, Disney now has  multiple times 5,000 stories to tap. For one of the great storytelling companies in history, this equates to a near-infinite amount of resources. Tales from the pages of decades of Marvel comic books have been waiting to come alive via the silver screen and now via online streaming. That time is now.

 

It’s already is well under way, of course, with some classic comic stories feeding into the movies, and now, apparently, into WandaVision. Yes, the stories of the Scarlett Witch and Vision, together and apart, offer a wealth of potential material, from the madness of Wanda to Vision trying to synthesize a normal life – with dire consequences in each case. (What? Hey, read the comics, man!) Consider these backgrounds, and check out how Disney describes WandaVision: “The series is a blend of classic television and the Marvel Cinematic Universe in which Wanda Maximoff and Vision—two super-powered beings living idealized suburban lives—begin to suspect that everything is not as it seems.”

 

And Nick Fury? Well, in the comics, his stories range from the battlefields of World War II to espionage and running SHIELD to saving the world from afar.

So, consider everything you’ve already seen at the movies with the MCU – along with what Fox and Sony have offered, such as the X-Men and Spider-Man – the ABC television shows Agent Carter and Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., the Marvel shows that appeared on Netflix (i.e., Daredevil, The Punisher, Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Iron Fist and The Defenders). Add in what we know is coming from Marvel for Disney+. 

 

Oh, yeah, and note the forthcoming Marvel movies – Black Widow on May 7, 2021, Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings on July 9, 2021, Eternals on November 5, 2021, Thor: Love and Thunder on February 11, 2022; Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness on March 25, 2022; Black Panther 2 still scheduled for May 6, 2022, and Captain Marvel 2 on July 8, 2022.

 

“Wow” would not be an unreasonable reaction to all of this. And yet, it barely scratches the surface of what’s available for Disney thanks to Marvel. Sure, Disney’s deal to get Star Wars was impressive, but it likely will pale in comparison to the ongoing results from buying Marvel.

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

Also, get the paperback or Kindle edition of Ray Keating’s new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York.

 

Announcements from Disney Shareholder Meeting, Including Opening Date for Avengers Campus

by Ray Keating

News

DisneyBizJournal.com

March 11, 2020

There were a few announcements at today’s Disney shareholder meeting, including:

• Avengers Campus at Disneyland’s California Adventure park will open on July 18^th.

• Loki will debut on Disney+ in early 2021.

• Disney will distribute Peter Jackson’s documentary The Beatles: Get Back, and it will be released on September 4^th.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of The Disney Planner 2020: The TO DO List Solution and the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

Disney Earnings Beat Expectations and More Coming from Marvel and Star Wars for Disney+

by Ray Keating

News/Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

February 4, 2020

The Walt Disney Company beat market earnings expectations for its first-quarter fiscal year 2020 (ending on December 28, 2019), as reported today. There were interesting facts reported on a variety of fronts, including regarding Marvel, Star Wars, streaming services, and theme parks.

Consider some key points that emerged from the earnings call, the earnings report, and an interview that Disney CEO Bob Iger did with CNBC:

• Disney+ subscriptions hit 26.5 million at the end of 2019, and registered 28.6 million as of Monday, February 3. That nicely beat market expectations of between 20 and 25 million. In terms of sources, 50 percent of Disney+ subscribers have come from the Disney+ website, 20 percent from Verizon and its one-year-free offer, and the other 30 percent from additional sources/partners.

• ESPN+ subscriptions showed impressive growth as well. As of November 7 of last year, ESPN+ had 3.5 million subscribers. That grew to 6.6 million at the end of 2019, and hit 7.6 million on February 3. That’s more than double where it stood in early November. Clearly, the Disney+/ESPN+/Hulu package has been a hit.

• Hulu subscribers registered 30.4 million at the end of 2019, and came in at 30.7 million on February 3. Consider that Hulu had 22.8 million subscribers at the end of 2018. FX content and production is going to play a big part for Hulu content going forward, and Iger noted that the company plans on making an international push on Hulu in 2021, after the big initial push for Disney+.

• Iger noted that in addition to three Marvel Disney+ shows coming soon – The Falcon and The Winter Soldier (debuting in August), WandaVision (coming in December) and Loki– there are seven more Marvel shows in various stages of production. And yes, they will tie in with the Marvel movie universe and future films.

• As for Star Wars, Iger reiterated that the short-term emphasis is on Disney+ shows – noting the expectation for spinoffs from The Mandalorian (season 2 coming in October). However, future feature films are in development as well.

• On the theme parks front, it was noted that traditionally 18 percent to 22 percent of domestic park attendance comes on the international front, though attendance from Asia is “not significant,” with only Japan breaking into the top five nations in terms of attendance at Disneyland.

• Revenue at Disney’s domestic parks was up 10 percent in the quarter, with income up 6 percent. There was a 2 percent income gain in attendance, 10 percent in per capita spending, and four percent via hotels. As noted in the earnings report: “Growth at our domestic parks and resorts was due to higher guest spending and, to a lesser extent, increased attendance, partially offset by higher costs. Guest spending growth was primarily due to higher average ticket prices and an increase in food, beverage and merchandise spending. Higher costs were due to new guest offerings, driven by Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, and the impact of wage increases for union employees.”

• Iger highlighted an increase in Disney brand popularity among younger people thanks to the success of Disney+.

• The Walt Disney Company had earnings per share of $1.53 in the first quarter, which beat market expectations that were around $1.44. Total revenues were up by 36 percent compared to the same quarter in the previous year, with operating income up 9 percent.

That was a strong first quarter for Disney. The big questions looming in the short run are tied to how long the Shanghai and Hong Kong theme parks will be closed due to the coronavirus. Meanwhile, streaming promises to get an added boost with Disney+ going live in late March in much of Western Europe and in India.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of The Disney Planner 2020: The TO DO List Solution and the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.