by Ray Keating
Analysis/Commentary
DisneyBizJournal.com
December 4, 2023
The Marvels, which opened domestically on November 10, went from the worst opening for a Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to the worst box office overall among these films. Given the company’s poor box office performance of late, is Disney going to get serious about getting its movies back on track from both quality and costs perspectives?
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DisneyBizJournal noted, “The Marvels had the worst opening weekend of any MCU movie. According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, the domestic take was $47 million and the international box office was $41.5 million.” It also was pointed out that the film had a production budget estimated at $274 million, with marketing/post-production costs usually running anywhere from 50 percent to 100 percent of the production costs.
Variety reported, “After four weeks on the big screen, the comic book tentpole is running out of steam with $80 million in North America and $197 million globally. There would typically be optimism that attendance could rebound over the busy holiday season, but Disney apparently doesn’t expect that to be the case. The studio wrote on Sunday in a note to press, ‘With “The Marvels” box office now winding down, we will stop weekend reporting of international/global grosses on this title.’”
Yikes. That’s astounding – especially failing to reach $100 million domestically.
Variety also reported, “Now, as the film nears the end of its theatrical run, box office revenues won’t top 2008’s ‘The Incredible Hulk’ ($264 million, not adjusted for inflation), which previously stood as the lowest-grossing entry.”
As DisneyBizJournal has noted previously, assorted industry reports indicate that studio take is about 55 percent of the domestic box office (a bit higher with the earliest box office take), and anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent of foreign ticket sales. Our very generous assessment for Disney, therefore, pointed to The Marvels needing to earn more than $950 million to start making a box-office profit.
The Marvels estimated $197 million worldwide box office amounts to a breathtaking theatrical release loss for Disney.
Disney CEO Bob Iger has done a dance recently trying to explain the poor performance of this film, as well as others. For example, Variety quoted Iger declaring, “We got to the point where if a film didn’t do a billion dollars in global box office, we were disappointed. That’s an unbelievably high standard, and I think we have to get more realistic.”
Indeed, but there are two key problems in this equation that Disney seriously needs to address. The first is simply quality storytelling. It all has to improve, from story to characters to special effects. The second is the astronomical costs of Disney filmmaking, including MCU films. The idea that the breakeven point for a movie like The Marvels was beyond $900 million in box office revenues is outrageous.
Just because you expect a movie to top $1 billion at the box office doesn’t mean that you should budget matters so that you only start making money on or around that revenue point. Hollywood long has had trouble keeping costs under control, but the problem seems to have gotten far worse recently, which is strange given the enormous advancements on the tech front that should bring costs down, as is the case in almost all other industries.
There certainly has been a lot talk about “fixing” things at Disney, but it remains hard to detect much of substance happening regarding movies in terms of quality (perhaps other than the promotion for Dave Filoni on the Star Wars front) or costs. Disney has its work cut out for it. And yes, it requires fresh thinking and new blood. After all, just because the company has recovered from periodic movie lulls in the past is no guarantee that this will just automatically happen once again. Iger talked a great deal about innovation being an ongoing process in his book The Ride of a Lifetime. He’s right, and Disney needs innovation to be reinvigorated on the movie front right now.
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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, the Alliance of Saint Michael novels, and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.
The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
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