Disney and Pixar Get a “Gross” Hit with “Inside Out 2”

 by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

June 24, 2024

 

It feels like the good old days, which weren’t that long ago. What do I mean? Disney/Pixar has a big hit on its hands.

 

Critics and audiences love Inside Out 2, and people are shelling out dollars (as well as foreign currencies) to watch in theaters.

Over at RottenTomatoes.com, critics love the movie (91% fresh), while audiences love it even more (96% fresh).

 

And then there’s the box office gross. Over at BoxOfficeMojo.com (on June 24), the worldwide gross for Inside Out 2, which was released on June 14, registered $724.4 million. That included $355.2 million domestic and $369.2 international.

 

Nice.

 

But what about those pesky runaway costs plaguing Disney? Well, it’s widely reported that Inside Out 2 carried a whopping production budget of $200 million. Yikes. 

 

Once more, we need to do a little more digging. First, marketing/promotion costs have to be factored in, which can run anywhere from 50 percent to 100 percent of a production budget. Assuming a midpoint, then marketing/promotion costs would come in at roughly $150 million. That puts the total cost of Inside Out 2 at $350 million. Gulp.

 

Next, we need to isolate the studio’s take of both the domestic and international box office. As DisneyBizJournal has noted before, various industry reports point to studios taking in about 55 percent of the domestic box office, and anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent of foreign ticket sales. As always let’s assume the best case. Therefore, 55 percent of the domestic $355.2 million and 40 percent of the international take of $369.2 million indicate a Disney share of the gross box office for Inside Out 2 at $343.1 million ($195.4 million domestically plus $147.7 million international).

 

Amazingly, that puts Inside Out 2, with a current gross box office of just about $725 million at a breakeven point right now for Disney. Now, this is a movie that apparently will have legs, so Inside Out 2 will prove to be profitable for Disney during its theatrical run.

 

At the same time, however, the numbers on this movie, once again, speak to Disney’s inability to control costs on its movies (and streaming shows). Inside Out 2 is a clear hit, so the cost issue hurts less. But it hurts, nonetheless. The notion that Disney, and much of Hollywood, must spend extravagantly to produce quality movies is absurd. The industry’s history shows otherwise, and the leaps forward in technology in the movie-making business should eventually reduce costs.

 

You can’t keep betting on hits the size of Inside Out 2 to deal with costs. It’s just not realistic – especially during creative lulls like the one Disney has been struggling through of late.

 

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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, the Alliance of Saint Michael novels, and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

The Disney Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more.

 

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• The Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. There are 19 books in the series now.

 

• The Alliance of Saint Michael novels – Cathedral and Subversion – are at Amazon. 

 

• Order The Weekly Economist III: Another 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist, The Weekly Economist II: 52 More Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist, and The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist at Amazon.com.

 

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Former Disney CEO Bob Iger and the Movie Business

 by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

September 8, 2022

 

The headlines about Bob Iger’s views on the future of the movie business seem to be everywhere. And since Iger is no longer Disney’s CEO, he apparently feels comfortable talking more freely about his take on the future of people heading to the movie theater.

 

Speaking at Vox Media’s Code Conference in Beverly Hills on Wednesday (September 7), the headline takeaway is that Iger doesn’t see theatergoing returning to pre-pandemic levels … ever.

According to CNBC’s report, Iger declared, “I don’t think movies ever return, in terms of moviegoing, to the level that they were at pre-pandemic.” Iger didn’t say that movies were dead, but he argued that the convenience of streaming was the key to restraining movies in theaters.

 

Now, Iger might be right. But as time passes, the unknowns about how much streaming will cut into theater attendance arguably have only grown. There certainly are anecdotes that raise questions about Iger’s assertion, such as the success of a film like Top Gun: Maverick ($1.44 billion globally, including $702 million domestic) and the fact that I recently went to a Fathom Events showing of Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, originally released in 1982, to a pretty darn full theater.

 

Along these lines, CNBC raises some critical points, including the following:

 

Between January and the end of August, the domestic box office generated around $5.3 billion, down around 31% compared to 2019. It remains on pace to deliver around $7.5 billion in total ticket sales by the end of the year. For comparison, in 2019 the box office tallied $11.4 billion for the full year. There are other factors leading to this decline in box office, including a significantly smaller number of film releases. Only 46 films have been widely released domestically during the first eight months of the year. During the same period in 2019, 75 films had been released widely.

 

Considering the reduction in the number of releases, the falloff in box office revenues in 2022 versus 2019 isn’t out of line. In fact, the revenue numbers seem to have held up fairly well given that smaller number of releases.

 

For good measure, it pays to keep in mind that attendance at sporting events has recovered to a significant degree, with MLB attendance in 2022 down by about 5 percent versus the same time in 2019.  And in 2021, NFL attendance actually moved above the 2019 level.

 

If studios get back to sending quality films to movie theaters, will the box office really never get back to 2019 levels due to streaming? Hmmm. Bob Iger thinks so. I’m not so sure.

 

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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, and the Alliance of Saint Michael novels; and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Two great ways to order Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel, which is Ray’s sixteenth work of fiction, and the first in the Alliance of Saint Michael series. Signed paperbacks here and the Kindle edition here. 

 

Two great ways to order Ray Keating’s new nonfiction book – The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks here, and paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions here.  

 

Get all of Ray Keating Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries in paperback and for the Kindle at Amazon.com and signed books at www.RayKeatingOnline.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Marvel Movies Saved the 2021 Box Office

 by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

January 11, 2022

 

Superheroes saved the 2021 box office – specifically, Marvel heroes did so.

 

The pandemic obviously has devastated the movie theater business, and while the 2021 domestic (U.S. and Canada) box office take was double what was earned in 2020, the numbers remained well off the pre-pandemic 2019 level.

In fact, the $4.58 billion earned in domestic movie ticket sales in 2021 registered the same level as was garnered in 1992, according to the Hollywood Reporter. However, that fails to factor inflation into the equation, meaning that the 2021 earnings were even less than the 1992 take in real terms.

 

Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, the 2021 domestic box office was off by 60 percent.

 

As for a studio breakdown, CNBC noted that Disney led the way with 26 percent of the 2021 box office, followed by Sony’s 23 percent.

But let’s be clear, it was the Marvel Cinematic Universe that truly ruled. Five of the top six movies in terms of domestic gross were MCU movies, with three from Disney and two from Sony.

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony) topped all domestic earners with $573 million, followed by $225 million for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney), $213 million for Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony), $184 million for Black Widow (Disney), and $165 million for Eternals (Disney). 

 

That tallies up to 30 percent of the 2021 domestic box office for MCU films. 

 

By the way, the Sony MCU movies outgrossed the Disney MCU films - $786 for Sony’s and $574 for Disney’s.

 

As for the other top films, F9: The Fast Saga was number five at the domestic box office (Universal at $173 million) and number seven was the James Bond film No Time to Die (United Artists at $161 million).

 

So, we’ve learned (or relearned) a couple of things about movies during a pandemic. First, big blockbusters (in particular, superhero blockbusters) will draw some audiences into theaters – mainly, younger moviegoers. 

 

Second, non-blockbuster, more adult-oriented movies, if you will, are having a very tough time, including The Last Duel (Disney’s 20th Century Studios) and West Side Story (Disney’s 20th Century Studios), which were both excellent. Part of this, no doubt, is less willingness among older moviegoers to sit in theaters while pandemic issues still rage on. To be less generous, such films also require more of an attention span than what might be needed for at least some superhero movies.

 

What does any of this mean post-pandemic? Speculation can, and has, run in all kinds of directions, but the safest take is that the pandemic has accelerated a shift among consumers to viewing more content at home. However, the degree of this shift and what it will mean for movies being released in theaters remains anyone’s guess at this point in time. The general direction of greater in-home viewing is great for consumers (who are ultimately driving the trend), and for content creators who are seeing and will continue to see increasing opportunities to create via streaming services.

 

But as anyone in the buggy whip industry would have told you with the arrival of the internal combustion engine, when these kinds of upheavals of innovation dramatically alter the economic landscape, matters of survival emerge for businesses who were entrenched in doing things the old ways. This all points to theater owners facing considerable challenges in creating an environment that will get people off their couches and into theaters.

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Get more out of 2022 with The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution! It combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more. Also, “The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution” comes with a handy spiral binding for easy use. 

 

Keating has three new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13^th thriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Again, get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com. And order the 15th book in the series What’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story – grab it at Amazon.com or signed editions at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Disney Much to be Thankful for at Thanksgiving Weekend Box Office

 by Chris Lucas

Guest Column

DisneyBizJournal.com

November 28, 2020

 

For the last thirty years, Disney has dominated the five-day Thanksgiving weekend box office almost every time they have had a movie released during that period. 

 

Last year’s Frozen 2 holds the all-time record for Thanksgiving weekend sales, with over $93 million. Disney holds the top six spots, with their dominance only broken by 2018’s Creed II in the seventh slot. 

Here are Disney’s Wednesday Thanksgiving releases in the United States since 1991 and how they did that weekend.

 

1991 - Beauty & The Beast - 1st 

1992 - Aladdin - 1st

1995 - Toy Story - 1st

1996 - 101 Dalmatians (live action) - 1st

1997 - Flubber - 1st

1998 - A Bug’s Life - 1st

1999 - Toy Story 2 - 1st

2000 - 102 Dalmatians- 3rd place, just behind Unbreakable and How The Grinch Stole Christmas

2002 - Treasure Planet - 4th place, behind Harry Potter & The Chamber of Secrets, 007 Die Another Day, and The Santa Clause 2

2003 - The Haunted Mansion - 2nd place, behind Elf

2004 - National Treasure - 1st

2007 – Enchanted - 1st

2008 - Bolt - 4th, behind Twilight, 007 Quantum of Solace and Four Christmases

2009 - Old Dogs - 4th place, behind Twilight: New Moon, The Blind Side, and 2012

2010 - Tangled - 2nd, behind Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

2011 - The Muppets - 2nd, behind Twilight: Breaking Dawn

2013 - Frozen - 2nd, behind Hunger Games: Catching Fire

2015 - The Good Dinosaur- 2nd, behind Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

2016 - Moana - 1st

2017 - Coco -1st

2018 - Ralph Breaks The Internet - 1st

2019 - Frozen 2 - 1st

 

__________

 

Chris Lucas is the author of Top Disney: 100 Top Ten Lists of the Best of Disney, from the Man to the Mouse and Beyond.

 

On the PRESS CLUB C Podcast, enjoy Ray’s discussion with Chris Lucas about his career as an actor, author and Disney expert. Tune in right here!

 

Disney Hits Annual Box-Office Record ... in July

by Ray Keating

News

DisneyBizJournal.com

July 29, 2019

Disney hit a box-office record for the entire year, but it’s only July, according to a Hollywood Reporter article.

Keeping in mind that these comparisons are in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation (my standard economist disclaimer), Disney has pulled in a total of $7.67 billion globally so far this year, according to the Reporter, which surpasses the previous full-year record of $7.61 billion, which also was held by Disney for 2016.

For good measure, Disney’s $5.09 billion internationally ranks as the first time international revenues have moved beyond $5 billion for a studio.

Disney also is on track to break its 2016 record of having four films break the $1 billion mark – with Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin and both Toy Story 4 and The Lion King are on track to do so shortly.

And there’s more to come, including Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Frozen II and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as well as films moved under the Disney umbrella with the Fox merger, such as to be Ad Astra, Terminator: Dark Fate, and Ford v. Ferrari.

One of the interesting questions looking ahead is: Will Disney in future years be able to match what it has accomplished at the box office in 2019? Although, how much will Disney care given its investment in the Disney+ streaming service and the ongoing shift of video entertainment from the theater to the home?

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

If you enjoyed this article, and since I am the author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories, can I ask you to take at least one (preferably more) of the following steps?

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Avengers: Endgame Becomes All-Time Box Office Champ ... Well, Not Really

by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

July 23, 2019

It’s been widely reported that Avengers: Endgame has moved ahead of Avatar to become the all-time box-office hero. The superhero movie fan in me certainly loves this. Toss in the fact that I found Avatar to be an annoying movie, and I’m even more pleased.

However, the economist in me knows that this isn’t really the case. After all, the widely quoted box-office numbers on Endgame and Avatar– specifically, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com, Endgame earning $2,790,591,417 with Avatar at $2,789,679,794 – are not adjusted for inflation.

Avatarwas released in 2009. So, adjusting for inflation, it’s real, or inflation-adjusted, box-office take comes into at approximately $3.3 billion in current dollars.

So, sorry, Endgame still trails Avatar. But Avatar was never the tops at the box office anyway. 

The box-office king remains Gone with the Wind, which earned $402,352,579with a December 1939 release, again, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. That take translates into $7.27 billion in current dollars.

Sorry to the Avengers, but it’s Gone with the Wind as the big box-office winner.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

If you enjoyed this article, and since I am the author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories, can I ask you to take at least one (preferably more) of the following steps?

1) The new Pastor Stephen Grant novel – DEEP ROUGH – has arrived! You can order the Kindle edition, the paperback, or the signed book.

2) Please join the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories email list, and get the upcoming short story, THE TRAITOR, for free! Sign up here.

3) Buy one of the other Pastor Stephen Grant novels or short stories at Amazon.comor signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

4) Become a member of the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship, and get all kinds of FREE stuff, including each new book in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Check out the levels and benefits here.