Disney’s Recent Big Budget Blockbusters and Bombs – and What Lies Ahead

 by Ray Keating

Commentary

DisneyBizJournal.com

May 3, 2023

 

What’s the right rate of success for Hollywood movies in terms of being profitable? Given the many mysteries of film industry accounting, general estimates are all over the place, with many pointing to a 50-50 chance overall, though higher for big-budget movies.

This question came to mind looking at Disney’s big budget movie performance in 2022, early 2023, and looking at the rest of this year.

 

Deadline.com recently provided some valuable estimates, with one report focused on 2022’s most valuable blockbusters, and another on Hollywood’s biggest bombs of 2022. Disney was well represented on both lists.

 

As for the biggest successes, four of the top 10 were Disney films. Avatar: The Way of Water came in at number one, with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness at number four, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at number five, and Thor: Love and Thunder at number nine.

 

However, it also should be noted that among the three Marvel movies on the list, while Dr. Strange ranked as unique, interesting and entertaining, Thor: Love and Thunder was largely panned by critics, and Wakanda Forever was, well, a yawner.

 

Meanwhile, Disney had three of the five big budget bombs noted by Deadline. In fact, Disney had the three worst performers. The losses by Deadline’s estimates were staggering, with Disney’s Strange World coming in the very worst at a $197.4 million loss; followed by the Disney/New Regency vehicle Amsterdam losing $108.4 million; and then Pixar/Disney’s Lightyear registering the third biggest loss at $106 million.

 

Yikes.

 

And then we had Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania arrive in theaters this past February. This movie is supposed to kick off Phase 5 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. But that film’s global gross was only $474.6 million, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. Critics were displeased as well. A reported pre-production and filming budget of nearly $200 million means that when everything is tallied up in the end, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania likely will be a money loser for Disney.

 

Double yikes.

 

And what lies ahead for the rest of this year? Well, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opens this weekend. It has a reported pre-production and filming budget of $250 million.  Opening weekend box office projections are running at $250-$260 million globally. Of course, it’s staying power will be the test. But when you look at the coming MCU titles, Guardians 3 offers Disney its best hope on the MCU front.

 

The next installment is The Marvels, arriving in November. And quite frankly, it’s hard to find any excitement or anticipation for this movie, and the same pretty much goes for the 2024 movies on the list – Captain America: New World Order, Thunderbolts and Blade.

 

Disney is hoping for the best with a live-action remake of The Little Mermaid (May 26) and another crack at Haunted Mansion (July 28), while Elemental (June 16) will be a big test to see if Pixar can shake off a period of underwhelming movies – besides the Lightyear bomb. But one doesn’t exactly get a feeling of confidence from this list either.

 

In the end, the greatest anticipation and hope for the Disney box office in 2023 swirls around Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (June 30). There seems to be real excitement for the return of Harrison Ford one more time as the iconic Indiana Jones. We trust that director James Mangold is up to the challenge, and he won’t make the same dumb mistake that the James Bond people made, that is, Mangold will not kill Indiana Jones. 

 

For what it’s worth, after seeing Dial of Destiny, according to Variety, Steven Spielberg declared, “Bob Iger had a screening for a lot of the Disney executives, and I came to the screening along with the director James Mangold. Everybody loved the movie. It’s really, really a good ‘Indiana Jones’ film. I’m really proud of what Jim has done with it… When the lights came up I just turned to the group and said, ‘Damn! I thought I was the only one who knew how to make one of these.’”

 

Indy fans and Disney shareholders are praying that Spielberg is right.

 

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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com; and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, and the Alliance of Saint Michael novels; and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right? 

 

Consider books by Ray Keating…

 

• The Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. You can order the latest book in the series – Under the Golden Dome: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Get the signed books here, or paperbacks and Kindle editions right here.

 

• Pre-order The Weekly Economist II: 52 More Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Kindle edition here and signed books here. And don’t forget the first book in this growing series, i.e., The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks at RayKeatingOnline.com or paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.

 

• Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel. Signed paperbacks and/or paperbacks, hardcovers and the Kindle edition at Amazon. 

 

• The Lutheran Planner: The TO DO List Solution combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement, inspiration and consolation from the Christian faith.

 

• Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  –  signed books  or at  Amazon.

 

•  Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know is available at  Amazon  in paperback or for the Kindle edition, and signed books at  www.raykeatingonline.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

“Lightyear” Ranks as a Big Flop, Raising Questions about Pixar

 by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

July 5, 2022

 

Disney-Pixar’s Lightyear ranks as a rather staggering flop. There’s just no way around that for Disney. And with it comes questions about Pixar.

 

To drive home the point, consider that Minions: The Rise of Gru, from Universal, opened on July 1, and through July 4, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com, it raked in $125.2 million domestically and $219 million globally. In contrast, Lightyear opened domestically on June 17, and thus far it has earned $106.7 million domestically and $188.9 million globally. 

 

That is, the opening July 4^th weekend for Minions generated more ticket sales than Lightyear has over three weekends. Yikes.

Putting aside Minions, the reported production budget for Lightyear was $200 million. That excludes marketing costs, which generally run anywhere from 50 percent to 100 percent of the production budget. Let’s take a middle point, and therefore, assume a total costs of $350 million for Lightyear. At just less than $190 million in revenue after its third weekend, there’s just no way that Lightyear will come close to breaking even, never mind making a profit in theaters. Yikes, again.

 

This was Pixar’s first big move back into theaters since Onward was cut short in theaters when the pandemic hit in March 2020. Since then, Soul, Luca and Turning Red went to Disney+. Consider that Lightyear’s production budget at $200 million isn’t all that different from reports that Soul cost $150 million, Luca $200 million, and Turning Red $175 million – again, absent marketing costs. Those are big numbers for few dollars coming in at the box office, while one is left trying to figure out their contributions to Disney+ subscriptions. They no doubt contributed positively to subscriber growth, but to what degree? Also, can these types of budgets be sustained in the future without substantial profits at the box office?

 

Of course, Pixar has a stellar track record over the long haul, and it might just snapback with more hits. It’s hard to bet against them. 

 

But doubts lurk. After all, the creators at Pixar today are not the same as those who gave us Toy Story, The Incredibles, Monsters Inc. and other Pixar classics. Indeed, one could argue that there has been a drop off in the quality of Pixar films over its past 11 movies – starting with The Good Dinosaur in 2015 which had the worst Pixar box office pre-pandemic – again especially when compared to the incredible run with its first 15 movies. 

 

So, Pixar seems to be another question for Disney CEO Bob Chapek, who is a CEO in no shortage of questions and challenges.

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Two great ways to order Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel, which is Ray’s sixteenth work of fiction, and the first in the Alliance of Saint Michael series. Signed paperbacks here and the Kindle edition here. 

 

Two great ways to order Ray Keating’s new nonfiction book – The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks here, and paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions here.  

 

Get all of Ray Keating Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries in paperback and for the Kindle at Amazon.com and signed books at www.RayKeatingOnline.com. 

 

Get more out of the rest of 2022 with The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution! It combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more. Also, “The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution” comes with a handy spiral binding for easy use. It’s on sale and shipping is always free!

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Pixar: Three Times a Charm or Three Strikes You’re Out or … COVID?

 by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

January 24, 2022

 

Disney recently announced that Pixar’s Turning Red will skip a theatrical release, and instead, head straight to a Disney+. This marks the third Pixar film in a row to land on Disney+, after Soul and Luca. What does this mean for Pixar? Three times a charm? Three strikes you’re out? Or just more COVID fallout?

Interestingly, the articles citing anonymous sources from inside Pixar didn’t capture anger and hostility against Disney or CEO Bob Chapek. Instead, the quotes came across as a combination of resignation and disappointment. With what’s going on with COVID, including the latest Omicron variant surge, those quoted admitted that they understood these decisions, though not necessarily liking them. 

 

As one Pixar person was quoted by the Hollywood Reporter: “Everyone is really bummed, but most of us get it. Families just aren’t going to the movies.”

 

That lines up with what Kareem Daniel, chairman of Disney Media & Entertainment Distribution, said: “Given the delayed box office recovery, particularly for family films, flexibility remains at the core of our distribution decisions as we prioritize delivering the unparalleled content of The Walt Disney Company to audiences around the world.”

 

Consider that Disney animation’s Encanto, which was released in theaters on November 24, made $224 million at the box office on a production budget estimated at between $120 million and $150 million. Factor in marketing, and the film might have broken even … maybe.

 

Box office revenues obviously matter to Disney, but so does streaming subscriptions. And imagine where would Disney, and its Pixar subsidiary, be without streaming in this environment.

 

The big Pixar test now stands as Lightyear, which is scheduled to hit theaters on June 17, 2022. And yes, COVID will largely tell the story.

 

Turning Red will arrive on Disney+ on March 11. Like Soul and Luca, Turning Red will be available to Disney+ subscribers at no additional cost.

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Get more out of 2022 with The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution! It combines a simple, powerful system for getting things done with encouragement and fun for Disney fans, including those who love Mickey, Marvel, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, princesses and more. Also, “The Disney Planner 2022: The TO DO List Solution” comes with a handy spiral binding for easy use. 

 

Keating has three new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13^th thriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Again, get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com. And order the 15th book in the series What’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story – grab it at Amazon.com or signed editions at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

Pixar Releases First Look at “Lightyear” Movie

 by Beth Keating

News

DisneyBizJournal.com

October 27, 2021

 

Mark your calendars (but given Disney’s recent and frequent reshuffling of its movie schedule, do it in pencil) for June 17, 2022, for the release of Lightyear, the animated backstory of the world’s most famous Space Ranger, Buzz Lightyear.

Disney and Pixar today released a visually striking trailer for the new origin tale for Buzz Lightyear – or at least for the man behind the toy.  The movie shares the story of the hero on whom the toy was modeled, following the journey of the young test pilot whose mission takes him “to infinity and beyond.” 

 

According to Pixar, “The sci-fi action-adventure presents the definitive origin story of Buzz Lightyear — the hero who inspired the toy — introducing the legendary Space Ranger who would win generations of fans.”

 

The “real life” Buzz is voiced by actor Chris Evans of Captain America and Avengers fame, adding a layer of separation between the “Space Ranger” astronaut and the “action figure,” who was famously voiced by Tim Allen in the Toy Story franchise (and by Patrick Warburton in the Star Command series spin-off).

 

The feature length animated film is produced by Galyn Susman, and veteran Pixar animator Angus MacLane brings his considerable talents to the project as well, including as director.

 

In an era when Disney has been making movies by doing live-action versions of previously released animated film hits, it’s refreshing to get a new take on a beloved story franchise. Can’t wait to see the final results!

 

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Beth Keating is a regular contributor to DisneyBizJournal.

 

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