by Ray Keating
Analysis
DisneyBizJournal.com
October 19, 2021
Disney shareholders heard some unusual Monday morning (October 18) blues this week.
First, Disney’s stock received a rare downgrade from a Barclays analyst, going from a price target of $210 per share to $175 per share.
The big worry for this analyst was the slowdown in Disney+ streaming subscribers. (See DisneyBizJournal’s report on Disney’s latest announcements on streaming.) As Reuters noted:
“While the company (Disney) appears to be targeting one new piece of content a week, not every piece of content has the same franchise value or visibility,” Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar said.
Barclays also said the slowdown in Disney+ subscribers could not be solely attributed to a pull forward in additions in 2020, when streaming platforms gained popularity as people hunkering down at home sought entertainment.
To achieve its target of 230 million to 260 million Disney+ subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024, Disney will need to more than double its current pace of growth to at least the same level as Netflix (NFLX.O), according to Barclays.
For good measure, shareholders and movie fans were hit on Monday morning with a long list of movie releases being pushed back by Disney.
“Indiana Jones 5” was delayed, again, being moved from July 29, 2022, to June 30, 2023. Keep in mind that this fifth installment in the Indiana Jones saga was originally supposed to be released in 2019.
As for the Marvel Cinematic Universe:
• Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness moves from March 25, 2022, to May 6, 2022.
• Thor: Love and Thunder will journey from May 6, 2022, to July 8, 2022.
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever goes from July 8, 2022, to November 11, 2022.
• The Marvels shifts from November 11, 2022, to February 17, 2023.
• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania shifts from February 17, 2023, to July 28, 2023.
• Also, an untitled Marvel movie is being shifted forward from November 10, 2023, to November 3, 2023.
Assorted untitled films also were removed from the schedule.
Meanwhile, on the MCU slate before Doctor Strange are Eternals on November 5, 2021, and Spider-Man: No Way Home (with Sony) on December 17, 2021.
So, does all of this information warrant longer-run concerns for Disney and its stock? Not really.
The schedule pushbacks on movies should have surprised no one, as Disney and the rest of Hollywood still work to sort out the (hopefully) post-pandemic world of movie releases. Also, a slowing in subscriber growth for Disney+ was predictable, but reaching the subscriber goal of exceeding 230 million by the end of fiscal year 2024 remains well within reasonable expectations. That effort, of course, will be helped by more streaming content, especially of the Star Wars and Marvel varieties, coming to Disney+.
The Walt Disney Company’s stock price closed on October 19 at $171.18.
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Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels and assorted nonfiction books. Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.
The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating has three new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Again, get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com. And order the 15th book in the series What’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story – grab it at Amazon.com or signed editions at www.raykeatingonline.com.
Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of Disney, Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.
You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know.
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