Look for “Toy Story 4” To Beat Out “Incredibles 2” and “Frozen”

by Ray Keating

Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

June 9, 2019

All of the early buzz on Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 isn’t just positive, but, well, over-the-top positive. Combine that with Disney cranking up the marketing effort between now and the June 21^stopening of the film, and we’re talking a monster box office take.

Many are looking for an opening weekend between $100 million and $150 million. By the way, the current record weekend opening for an animated film is another Disney/Pixar vehicle – Incredibles 2– which earned $182 million in June of last year.

Incredibles 2 wound up pulling in a total of $1.24 billion at the global box office. 

In terms of the Toy Story franchise, the first film, Toy Story, earned $373.6 million in 1995, followed by $497.4 million for Toy Story 2 (1999), and Toy Story 3’s  global box office gross of $1.07 billion in 2009.

Many people questioned why we needed a Toy Story 4. The early quick takes on the movie have told us that, in fact, we did need another entry in the Toy Story franchise. As a result, and given the enormous popularity of Woody, Buzz and their friends, I think we’re looking at a bigger weekend opening for Toy Story 4 than was the case for Incredibles 2, and an eventual box office gross that beats out the current record holder (at least in nominal dollars), Frozen (again, Disney), which took in $1.28 billion.

Look for Woody and Buzz to go out on top – and Disney winding up on top in animation no matter what.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels. He can be contacted at  raykeating@keatingreports.com.

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