Disney Demographics: Kids Have Been Slow Growth, While Growth Has Been Robust Among the Gray-Haired Set

by Ray Keating

Review/Analysis

DisneyBizJournal.com

January 11, 2019

Walt Disney World opened in October 1971, at the time featuring the Magic Kingdom, the Contemporary Resort, the Polynesian Resort, and the Fort Wilderness Resort & Campground. To say that things have grown over the past near-three decades would be stating what is painfully obvious. 

But one of the major changes worth highlighting is the rather dramatic shift in emphasis at Walt Disney World. Specifically, while Disney World remains a fantastic destination for families with children, it also has become, and continues to develop as a top vacation spot for adults of all ages. Of course, it helps that those adults remain kids at heart.

When we review growth in the U.S. population by age, it’s easy to see why Disney, while still very much catering to the kids, has embraced adults in a big Mickey Mouse hug as well.

Consider the age make-up of the U.S. population over the years. The numbers are presented in Table 1.

Table 1: U.S. Population by Age for Select Years (numbers in millions)

	Total	19 & under	19 & under	20-44	20-44
	Population	Number	Share of Pop.	Number	Share of Pop.
1970	203.2	77.0	37.90%	64.4	31.70%
1980	227.1	72.5	31.90%	84.5	37.20%
1990	248.7	71.3	28.70%	99.8	40.10%
2000	281.4	80.5	28.60%	104.0	37.00%
2010	308.7	83.3	27.00%	103.7	33.60%
2017	325.7	82.2	25.20%	108.4	33.30%
	45-64	45-64	65 and over	65 and over
	Number	Percent of Pop	Number	Share of Pop.
1970	41.8	20.60%	20.0	9.80%
1980	44.5	19.60%	25.5	11.30%
1990	46.7	18.80%	31.2	12.60%
2000	62.0	22.00%	35.0	12.40%
2010	81.5	26.40%	40.3	13.00%
2017	84.4	25.90%	50.9	15.60%

In 1970, the year before the Magic Kingdom came online, the U.S. population was over 203 million, including some 77 million people 19 years old or younger. This group of children and teenagers made up 37.9 percent of the population.

Jump ahead to 2017, for example, and children and teens accounted for only 25.2 percent of the U.S. population. And over this time, the decline has been rather steady. 

Meanwhile, the 20-44-years-old group inched up from 31.7 percent of the population in 1970 to 33.3 percent in 2017. However, this group did make up 40 percent of the population in 1990, and has been shrinking since.

The 45-64-years-old set jumped from 20.6 percent to 25.9 percent of the population. But here the changes have been uneven, declining form 1970 to 1990, rising from 1990 to 2010, and then a small decline. 

And the 65-and-over folks leaped up from 9.8 percent in 1970 to 15.6 percent in 2017 – with the rise being rather steady along the way.

However, there’s more to consider in these numbers, namely, the straightforward growth in each group. In fact, in terms of total numbers, each group grew from 1970 to 2017, along with the overall U.S. population.

Table 2: Percent Growth in Population, 1970 to 2017

Age Group	Growth from 1970 to 2017
19 & under	7%
20-44 years old	68%
45-64 years old	102%
65 years old and over	155%
Total Population	60%

From 1970 to 2017, the U.S. population grew by 60 percent. Looking at age groups, what matters is how each group expanded compared to that overall increase. The 65-and-over group jumped by an astounding 155 percent, followed by growth of 102 percent among those in the 45-to-64 group, and 68 percent in the 20-44-years-old group. Meanwhile, the number of people 19 years old or younger did grow, but only by 7 percent between 1970 and 2017.

So, America is getting grayer, and yes, much of this is about the Baby Boomers, and about Americans generally having fewer children. Other factors have come into play – such as immigration – and they will continue to matter going forward.

No doubt, the children bring families to Disney World, and that will continue to be the case. But kids, quite frankly, have been the slow-growth group. As a result, there’s much more for adults to enjoy, not only as parents and grandparents, but just by going on vacation without any children in the equation at all. That’s what the numbers tell Disney, and they’re executing accordingly.

Ray Keating is the editor, publisher and economist for DisneyBizJournal.com, and author of the Pastor Stephen Grant novels, with the three latest books being Reagan Country: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, Heroes and Villains: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Storyand Shifting Sands: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story. He can be contacted at raykeating@keatingreports.com.